LikeLike

]]>LikeLike

]]>I think it is important to try and quantify it, and saying at least a trillion to one probability for falseness, brings the unlikeness home to those who understand mathematics. One problem is that it is hard to really understand what one out of a trillion chances are in real life. My best idea is a sports analogy showing some sporting event that has a trillion to one chances of happening. I came up with two related to baseball.

A trillion to one is roughly the probability that a pitcher will pitch four perfect games in a row. In the 140 year history of major league baseball, there have been only 25 perfect games pitched. Nobody has ever pitched more than one perfect game in a row.

Also in baseball, the player who has hit the most home runs per times at bat is Mark McGuire. He hit a home run once every 10.6 times at bat. Assuming a hitter who hits home runs at the rate of Mark McGuire, a trillion to one is about the chances that they will hit 12 home runs in 12 consecutive times at bat. So far, 23 players have hit four home runs in four consecutive times at bat. No player has ever hit more than four home runs in four consecutive times at bat.

LikeLike

]]>LikeLike

]]>LikeLike

]]>LikeLike

]]>LikeLike

]]>